The War in Ukraine threatens to spin out of control. It’s worth reviewing how other wars spun out of control. And how such Transformative Wars are won by pursuing a Transformative Peace.

The American Civil War began with wishful thinking by both the South and the North.

The South believed that King Cotton would make the British Empire support the Confederacy in order to keep cotton flowing to Britain’s textile mills.

The South also thought their valiant soldiers would quickly win any war.

The North shared such wishful thinking that their armies would quickly crush any rebellion.

To unify the North and pave the way for a quick and easy end to these troubles, President Lincoln promised that he wouldn’t touch slavery where it already existed. His only war aim was to preserve the Union.

The First Battle of Bull Run was the fruit of such wishful thinking.

The untrained armies of the South and the North clashed about 30 miles outside of Washington. To see the battle, ladies and politicians rode out from Washington. There was a festive mood, as if they were going to the Super Bowl to see their team win.

Reality was a rude awakening.

The South won the battle. The Union troops, the ladies, and the politicians fled back to Washington.

A stalemate ensued.

Each side raised larger and better trained armies. Four years of bloody war bled the nation white.

I hope and pray the the war in Ukraine will not spin out of control. I hope and pray the bloodshed and destruction will end soon—preferably immediately.

But I fear that wishful thinking by Russia and the West may lead us into a bloody stalemate that will bleed Humanity white.

Russia is being led into disaster by Putin’s wishful thinking.

He expected Ukraine would collapse quickly when invaded by Russian tanks, as Hungary did in 1956 and as Czechoslovakia did in 1968.

Putin’s calculations didn’t include modern-day “smart weapons” such as Javelin missiles that turned his vaunted tanks into burning coffins.

Putin’s calculations didn’t include the anger and patriotism of Ukrainians at his ruthless invasion of Ukraine.

Putin’s calculations didn’t include the yearnings of Ukrainians for an independent, sovereign nation.

Putin’s calculations didn’t include the yearnings of Ukrainians for a government that will secure their Life, their Liberty, and their Pursuit of Happiness.

Putin’s calculations didn’t include the renewed unity and resolve of the West.

Unfortunately, the West is also engaging in wishful thinking.

We are overly optimistic about the impact of our economic sanctions on Russia, much as the South was overly optimistic about the impact of King Cotton on the British Empire.

We are overly optimistic about the yearnings of Russians for a government that will secure Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.

We forget that it took more than 40 years of Cold War before the countries behind the Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe could celebrate by tearing down the Berlin Wall. Before they could say, in the words of the old Negro Spiritual: “Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty we are free at last!”.

(For an account of America’s victory in the Cold War, please read my book Visions of America, especially “Part IV: Peace For All Humanity”, at pages 115-151, 215-216.)

We underestimate the effectiveness of Putin’s ironclad control of the information reaching the Russian people.

Fortunately, when a war spins out of control, it doesn’t only create problems. It also creates opportunities.

Indeed, victory in such a Transformational War may well hinge on taking advantage of new the opportunities created by the war.

To win the Civil War, the North pursued abolitionist goals that would have been unthinkable when the war began. Ultimately, the Thirteenth, Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments to the Constitution of the United States were adopted.

The Thirteenth Amendment abolished slavery. The Fourteenth Amendment promised everyone due process and the equal protection of the laws. The Fifteenth Amendment promised everyone they could vote.

To be sure, the United States has often failed to keep its promises to abolish economic exploitation, establish the rule of wise and fair laws, and guarantee the right to vote.

Nevertheless, ever since its bloody and destructive Civil War, the Federal Government of the United States has aspired to fulfill its new roles to assure that government of the people, by the people, and for the people shall not perish from the earth.

How?

—By abolishing economic exploitation.

—By establishing the rule of wise and fair laws.

—By enforcing the right to vote.

As Lincoln urged in his Second Inaugural Address:

“With malice toward none and with charity for all; with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right . . . to do all which may achieve a just and lasting peace among ourselves, and with all nations.

Unfortunately, there are signs that this war in Ukraine may become far more bloody, destructive and widespread—perhaps even a war in which Putin carries out his threats to use nuclear weapons.

Therefore, we need to pursue victory by waging a Transformative War—a war that establishes a Transformative Peace.

What will a Transformative Peace look like?

—A Transformative Peace that abolishes nuclear weapons.

—A Transformative Peace that abolishes economic exploitation.

—A Transformative Peace that establishes wise and fair laws.

—A Transformative Peace that guarantees the right of all people to vote.

A Transformative Peace must be worthy of the ideal America first discovered in the hearts of Abraham, Moses and Jesus.

—A Transformative Peace that establishes a wise civilization by blessing ALL people.

—A Transformative Peace that establishes a wise civilization by challenging ALL pharaohs to set ALL people free.

—A Transformative Peace that establishes a wise civilization by healing ALL people.

A Transformative Peace must establish a wise civilization by following the advice of Lincoln in his Second Inaugural Address:

“With malice toward none and with charity for all; with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right . . . to do all which may achieve a just and lasting peace among ourselves, and with all nations.

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For more of my thoughts about establishing Peace, please read my blogs “Blessed Are the Peacemakers”, “Ending Violence: Putting Faces with Names”, “Ending Violence: Embracing Peace”, “Curtailing Force: Replacing Nails with Glue”, “Spilling Coffee”, “Chess Lessons: Playing for a Draw”, “Game Lessons: Sustainable Risk”, “Pandemic Wisdom: Multiple Choice Exams & No-Win-Scenarios”, “Deceptive-Drawings-Designed-To-Deceive-and-Divide”, “We Need Inspiring Visions of a Bright Future. Why?”, “Nationalism Is Patriotism Gone Astray”, and “Establishing Peace Without Limit”.